A transmissão de risco de crédito em cadeia de suprimentos

Ricardo Reolon Jorge, Julio F. B. Facó, Alexandre Andrade Acácio

Resumo


O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar a potencial transmissão de risco de crédito entre o comércio e a indústria na cadeia brasileira de calçados de couro. Para tal utilizaram-se as médias mensais da probabilidade de inadimplência de empresas do período de janeiro de 2008 a julho de 2013. Análises de séries temporais, testes de raiz unitária de Dickey Fuller Aumentado (ADF) e de Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt e Shin (KPSS), teste de cointegração de Johansen, modelo vetorial de correção de erros (VECM), causalidade de Granger, decomposição de erros da variância e função de resposta de impulso foram utilizados. Os resultados mostraram a existência de uma transmissão unidirecional do risco – da indústria para o comércio, bem como seu equilíbrio de longo prazo, confirmando a relevância da análise do risco de crédito das empresas em um contexto ampliado e que inclua os demais elos das cadeias de suprimentos.


Palavras-chave


Cadeia de suprimentos; risco de crédito; calçados de couro

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.20397/2177-6652/2017.v17i2.1105

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